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Bitcoin · Quarterly BTC-USD

Strategy
Conviction-weightedbacktest from 2020live since Jun 2026
Contact30-day delay · through Sep 9, 2026. Published with a 30-day delay: every figure runs up to 30 days ago, so nothing here shows a current position.
Track record · 1Y 30-day delay. Published with a 30-day delay: every figure runs up to 30 days ago, so nothing here shows a current position.
+14.48%
Total return
1Y · backtest → live
+14.48%
CAGR
vs BTC -29.81%
+44.3%
Alpha vs BTC
excess return
0.65
Sharpe
risk-adjusted
-8.56%
Max drawdown
peak-to-trough
1.57
Profit factor
gross win / gross loss
+0.36%
Avg trade
quarterly rebalance

Equity, drawdown & allocation

Cumulative return over Feb 2020 → Sep 2026 · ~7 years · backtest → live · log scale
Equity curve1Y +14.48%
Strategy BTC buy & hold
0%
Underwater drawdown · worst -8.56%
Target allocation · 80 decisions in view
0%50%100%
Sep ’25Dec ’25Mar ’26Jun ’26Sep ’26

Returns by horizon

trailing windows ending Sep 9, 2026
WindowReturnSharpeMax DDTrades
3M+3.14%1.19-1.98%9
YTD+15.95%1.02-8.22%29
1Y+14.48%0.65-8.56%39
3Y+359.9%2.17-9.20%84
5Y+926.7%1.97-10.18%141

Yearly returns

strategy vs BTC · compounded per calendar year · first / last year partial
+485%
+199%
2020
+244%
+60%
2021
+6%
-64%
2022
+191%
+156%
2023
+125%
+121%
2024
+14%
-6%
2025
+16%
-11%
2026
StrategyBTC

Monthly returns

LossGain
JFMAMJJASONDYR
2020-4343610-3243-8284347+485
20216137160635401300+244
202200010201-2111+6
2023310343150-2224912+191
202443533-1200003142+125
2025-14-112090-1-330+14
2026-2-27307030+16

Allocation history

target long weight over time · the current allocation is withheld
DateTarget weightChange
Aug 19, 202620%+20 pts
Aug 17, 20260%−20 pts
Aug 16, 202620%+20 pts
Aug 8, 20260%−20 pts
Aug 7, 202620%+20 pts
Aug 6, 20260%−20 pts
Aug 5, 202620%+20 pts
Jul 24, 20260%−20 pts
Jul 23, 202620%+20 pts
Jul 20, 20260%−20 pts
Jul 19, 202620%+20 pts
Jun 26, 20260%−100 pts
Jun 25, 2026100%+100 pts
Jun 17, 20260%−100 pts
Jun 16, 2026100%+100 pts
Jun 15, 20260%−100 pts
Jun 14, 2026100%+100 pts
Jun 13, 20260%−100 pts
Jun 9, 2026100%+100 pts
Jun 8, 20260%−100 pts
Jun 6, 2026100%+100 pts
May 19, 20260%−100 pts
May 18, 2026100%+100 pts
May 16, 20260%−100 pts
May 14, 2026100%+100 pts
May 13, 20260%−100 pts
Apr 9, 2026100%+100 pts
Apr 8, 20260%−100 pts
Apr 7, 2026100%+100 pts
Apr 6, 20260%−100 pts
Apr 5, 2026100%+100 pts
Apr 4, 20260%−100 pts
Apr 1, 2026100%+40 pts
Mar 28, 202660%+60 pts
Mar 24, 20260%−60 pts
Mar 23, 202660%+60 pts
Mar 22, 20260%−60 pts
Mar 17, 202660%+60 pts
Mar 16, 20260%−60 pts
Mar 7, 202660%+60 pts
Mar 5, 20260%−60 pts
Mar 1, 202660%+60 pts
Feb 28, 20260%−60 pts
Feb 26, 202660%+60 pts
Feb 20, 20260%−60 pts
Feb 19, 202660%+60 pts
Feb 16, 20260%−60 pts
Feb 15, 202660%+60 pts
Feb 13, 20260%−60 pts
Feb 6, 202660%+60 pts
Feb 4, 20260%−60 pts
Feb 3, 202660%+60 pts
Feb 2, 20260%−60 pts
Feb 1, 202660%+60 pts
Jan 18, 20260%−60 pts
Jan 17, 202660%+60 pts
Jan 16, 20260%−60 pts
Jan 14, 202660%+60 pts
Jan 10, 20260%−60 pts
Jan 9, 202660%+60 pts
Dec 7, 20250%−60 pts
Dec 5, 202560%+60 pts
Dec 4, 20250%−60 pts
Dec 3, 202560%+60 pts
Nov 29, 20250%−60 pts
Nov 28, 202560%+60 pts
Nov 27, 20250%−60 pts
Nov 25, 202560%+60 pts
Nov 24, 20250%−60 pts
Nov 23, 202560%+60 pts
Oct 22, 20250%−60 pts
Oct 20, 202560%+60 pts
Oct 19, 20250%−60 pts
Oct 10, 202560%+60 pts
Oct 6, 20250%−60 pts
Oct 5, 202560%+60 pts
Sep 30, 20250%−100 pts
Sep 29, 2025100%+100 pts
Sep 21, 20250%−100 pts
Sep 20, 2025100%+100 pts
Aug 30, 20250%−100 pts
Aug 29, 2025100%+100 pts
Jul 23, 20250%−100 pts
Jul 21, 2025100%+100 pts
Jul 19, 20250%−100 pts
Jul 9, 2025100%+100 pts
Jul 7, 20250%−100 pts
Jul 6, 2025100%+100 pts
Jul 5, 20250%−100 pts
Jul 4, 2025100%+100 pts
Jul 2, 20250%−100 pts
Jul 1, 2025100%+100 pts
Jun 27, 20250%−20 pts
Jun 24, 202520%+20 pts
Jun 15, 20250%−20 pts
Jun 14, 202520%+20 pts
Jun 13, 20250%−20 pts
Jun 12, 202520%+20 pts
Jun 11, 20250%−20 pts
Jun 6, 202520%+20 pts
Jun 5, 20250%−20 pts
Apr 24, 202520%+20 pts
Apr 23, 20250%−20 pts
Apr 22, 202520%+20 pts
Apr 21, 20250%−20 pts
Apr 19, 202520%+20 pts
Apr 7, 20250%−20 pts
Apr 6, 202520%+20 pts
Mar 28, 20250%−60 pts
Mar 24, 202560%+60 pts
Mar 3, 20250%−60 pts
Feb 28, 202560%+60 pts
Feb 22, 20250%−60 pts
Feb 21, 202560%+60 pts
Feb 14, 20250%−60 pts
Feb 13, 202560%+60 pts
Feb 12, 20250%−60 pts
Feb 11, 202560%+60 pts
Feb 9, 20250%−60 pts
Feb 8, 202560%+60 pts
Feb 3, 20250%−60 pts
Feb 2, 202560%+60 pts
Jan 28, 20250%−60 pts
Jan 27, 202560%+60 pts
Jan 14, 20250%−60 pts
Jan 13, 202560%+60 pts
Jan 10, 20250%−60 pts
Jan 9, 202560%+60 pts
Jan 7, 20250%−60 pts
Jan 6, 202560%+60 pts
Jan 5, 20250%−60 pts
Jan 4, 202560%+60 pts
Dec 28, 20240%−40 pts
Dec 18, 202440%+40 pts
Dec 17, 20240%−40 pts
Oct 14, 202440%+40 pts
Oct 13, 20240%−40 pts
Oct 11, 202440%+40 pts
Oct 6, 20240%−40 pts
Oct 4, 202440%+40 pts
May 19, 20240%−40 pts
May 17, 202440%+40 pts
May 3, 20240%−40 pts
May 2, 202440%+40 pts
Apr 24, 20240%−40 pts
Apr 22, 202440%+40 pts
Apr 19, 20240%−40 pts
Apr 18, 202440%+40 pts
Mar 25, 20240%−100 pts
Mar 22, 2024100%+100 pts
Mar 20, 20240%−100 pts
Mar 19, 2024100%+100 pts
Mar 4, 20240%−100 pts
Feb 8, 2024100%+100 pts
Jan 29, 20240%−100 pts
Jan 27, 2024100%+100 pts
Jan 12, 20240%−100 pts
Oct 16, 2023100%+100 pts
Oct 8, 20230%−100 pts
Oct 4, 2023100%+100 pts
Oct 3, 20230%−100 pts
Sep 27, 2023100%+100 pts
Sep 24, 20230%−100 pts
Sep 22, 2023100%+100 pts
Sep 21, 20230%−100 pts
Sep 16, 2023100%+100 pts
Sep 15, 20230%−100 pts
Sep 14, 2023100%+100 pts
Sep 13, 20230%−100 pts
Sep 12, 2023100%+100 pts
Sep 9, 20230%−100 pts
Sep 8, 2023100%+100 pts
Sep 5, 20230%−100 pts
Sep 4, 2023100%+100 pts
Sep 3, 20230%−100 pts
Sep 2, 2023100%+100 pts
Aug 30, 20230%−100 pts
Aug 29, 2023100%+100 pts
Aug 22, 20230%−100 pts
Aug 19, 2023100%+100 pts
Jul 23, 20230%−100 pts
Jul 22, 2023100%+100 pts
Jul 16, 20230%−100 pts
Jul 15, 2023100%+100 pts
Jul 14, 20230%−100 pts
Jun 23, 2023100%+100 pts
Jun 22, 20230%−100 pts
Jun 20, 2023100%+100 pts
Jun 17, 20230%−100 pts
Jun 16, 2023100%+100 pts
May 21, 20230%−100 pts
May 20, 2023100%+100 pts
May 16, 20230%−100 pts
May 15, 2023100%+100 pts
May 10, 20230%−100 pts
May 9, 2023100%+100 pts
May 3, 20230%−100 pts
May 1, 2023100%+100 pts
Apr 20, 20230%−100 pts
Apr 19, 2023100%—
30-day delay · through Sep 9, 2026. Published with a 30-day delay: every figure runs up to 30 days ago, so nothing here shows a current position. nothing here shows a current positionContact

A backtest is a hypothesis, not a promise — and this one is a survivor of a large automated search, so selection inflates it by construction. What matters is the live track since go-live, shown here beside it. Figures combine backtested and early-live periods, net of modeled fees and slippage, with max drawdown shown. The current signal and position are never shown: the record ends 30 days before today. Live signals are available to clients. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer of any security or service.

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Systematic trading-strategy research on crypto and US equities — backtests published as hypotheses, then tracked live against the record.

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© 2026 Solius Alpha. All rights reserved. Performance combines backtested periods with forward tracking from each model's promotion date (modeled fills and costs, not live execution); past performance is not indicative of future results. Informational only — not investment advice or a solicitation. Trading involves risk, including loss of capital.